The Coming of the Asian Wave:
Are we ready for it?

As travel and tourism enters its third phase, the period when masses of Asians, led by India and China, will begin to travel, are we prepared for the massive growth ahead? And what will the Asian legacy be? Banyan Tree's chairman, Mr KP Ho, gives food for thought...

The tourism industry is entering the third phase, defined as the 'Asian period of tourism', a period that will present unprecedented opportunities and challenges.

In a speech at the China Hotel Investment Summit in Shanghai last month, Mr KP Ho, Chairman of Banyan Tree Hotels & Resorts, said that this phase will see two-third's of the world's population, mainly in China and India, attaining a level of economic development where their populations will start to travel.

This wave, he said, would lead to a democratisation of tourism which will come 'perilously close to the commoditisation of tourism, resulting in such massive numbers as to threaten the physical and cultural environments in most societies'.

'Sustainable tourism will become an endangered ideal as our global industry lurches towards unsustainability,' he said.

Earlier, Mr Ho had said that the first period of world tourism coincided with the part of European colonialism. This period, he said, saw the introduction of hospitality standards which are still yardsticks of excellent service today.

'Innovations such as the concept of the European-style grand hotel, populated by apprentices trained at rigorous hotel vocational schools, were contributions from this European period of tourism.'

The second period, he said, was the American era of tourism which coincided with American multinational corporations spreading around the world. To service this globalising business, global hotel chains such as Hilton and InterContinental planted their flags around the world.

The clear rise of the Asian era

By 2015 there could be nine million outbound tourists from India and 67 million from China. Today, the stage is set for the Asian era of tourism.

Asia accounts for some 35 - 40% of the world's GDP. China's imports exceed those of the US, and combined financial reserves of China, Japan and the rest of Asia underpins the deficits of the West.

But the most important demographic trend is the rise of the Asian middle class, particularly in India and China, which account for almost 40% of the world's population.

'In every society, it is the new middle class which provides the greatest impetus to domestic and outbound tourism, as the newly rich aspire to see the world around them,' said Mr Ho.

Defined as those earning around US$10,000 a year, the global middle class, now accounting for less than 8% of the world's population, will reach around 1.2 billion by 2030.And within a decade, China will displace Japan and be second only to the US, with a 20% share of the world's richest people.

Behold, the largest economy in the world

By 2040, China will be the largest economy in the world. Today, 40% of its population is living in cities, up from only 12% in 1950. Every year, around 25 to 30 million Chinese villagers move to the cities.

'Within the next 10 years, 300 to 500 million of them - more than the entire population of Western Europe - will make the journey, and by 2015 - less than 10 years from now, more than half of China's population will live in cities.

'Its middle class is already around 50 million in size, and forecast to grow to 170 million by 2020, and to a staggering 520 million by 2030.

The same is happening to India, though more slowly. By 2040 India will become the world's third largest economy and five times larger than Japan. What this means is growth across all spectrums - from domestic to the luxury end, and China-led growth will be the defining feature of the tourism industry in the next few decades.

The clear and present danger

'Tremendous business opportunities will be generated, but so too will there be big problems accompanying such big numbers,' said Mr Ho.

'Is anyone other than the casino owners of Macau prepared for this onslaught? Thankfully, the Chinese government is already starting to educate its own people on some of the 'dos and don'ts' of behaviour while overseas. But the impact of this trend is going to be much more than just having congee alongside omelettes at breakfast buffets.

'The clear and present danger is that the extreme democratisation of tourism... will lead to the commoditisation of tourism in the Asian era.

'This will result in environmental degradation, cultural pollution, and other serious problems. It will be the responsibility of Asian tourism leaders to address and resolve these problems.'

Rise, the ardent and innovative advocates

This Asian period of tourism will also globalise the mix of travellers - from overwhelmingly white to now a rainbow mix of colours, he said.

'Rainbow tourism will be less dominated by classic European or American norms of behaviour, service standards, and management styles. The industry will have to reflect the market which it serves.

'But while the European period of tourism gave us the classic European hotel and its hotel schools, and the American period gave us, among other innovations, motels and global hotel brands, what will the Asian era of tourism give to the industry?

'What will the Chinese hospitality industry give to the world as its innovation? A civilisation which introduced so many scientific inventions cannot be mute at a time when its tourism is set to take the world by storm.

'I would suggest that perhaps it may ironically be where cultural and natural environments are most threatened by mass tourism, that sustainable tourism may one day finds its most ardent and innovative advocates.'

Mr Ho voiced the hope that the younger generation of China's tourism leaders would 'devise new forms of tourism which can reconcile the legitimate aspirations of hundreds of millions of newly rich Chinese to see their own country, with the need to preserve a fragile heritage'.

This article was originally published in the Singapore Tourist Board newsletter, P@SSPORT.