Terrorist attacks... How resilient will tourism be?
Within hours of the initial London bomb blasts on July 7th, the World Travel and Tourism Council's crisis committee had met to debate the potential repercussions on the industry, both in the UK and on a global scale. The WTTC's unique crisis event forecasting model uses an historical database and simulations of previous events to calculate the impact of new disasters, both man-made and natural, on the industry.
The UK tourism industry emergency response group, coordinated by VisitBritain and comprising ABTA (the Association of British Travel Agents) the UK Department of Culture, Media and Sport, and British Airways, supported this view, suggesting that there would be a slow-down in growth followed by a speedy recovery. Members reported an increase in safety-related enquiries but no mass cancellations of flights or holidays.
However, the situation in London, following the second wave of attacks, is clearly still developing and an assessment of the full impact on the tourism industry may not be possible for some time. Despite this, industry experts remain confident and upbeat about the long-term repercussions.
He continued: 'Now, more than ever, people should keep their travel plans and take the opportunity to visit family, friends and new places all over the world in order to meet others, thus creating an international community of understanding and peace. Not doing this would be to play into the hands of the terrorists.'
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The recent bombings in London and Egypt have sent shockwaves around the world. All of us in tourism share the horror and the grieving. At the same time, we realise that the attacks are intended not least to undermine our industry as a source of prosperity and a force for peace. In recent years, tourism has proved increasingly resilient to terrorism, but what will happen this time?
At that time, the committee agreed unanimously that the impact would be limited. They concluded that both the intensity and the duration of the effect upon international arrivals would be minor, and that the geographical reach of the event would be limited to the UK. Much like the Madrid and Bali bombings, the impact was expected to continue into 2006 but to have completely dissipated by the following year.
But a follow-up wave of suicide bombings in the capital just two weeks later and, more recently, in the popular Egyptian resort of Sharm-el-Sheik have forced industry analysts to revise their initial forecasts. It's clear from the timing and nature of the events, that these campaigns have been designed for maximum impact on a global scale and, already, experts are suggesting that the more obviously tourism-focussed attacks in Sharm-el-Sheik, following bombings earlier this year in Cairo and late last year in Taba, will result in a downturn of visitor figures.
Jean Claude Baumgarten, president of the WTTC said: 'Although we may see a short-term impact on the travel and tourism industry, previous experience has shown that both consumers and the industry itself are becoming more and more resilient. Peoples' desire to travel, experience new cultures and new places quickly bounces back. WTTC is confident that our industry will continue to grow, worldwide, as it has in the past.'
The WTTC suggests that effective communication by governments, the private sector and the media all play an important role in ensuring that, at times of crisis, the huge contribution that travel and tourism make to jobs and economies is not put at risk unnecessarily. As one of the world's largest and fastest growing industries, accounting for more than 10% of global GDP and over 221 million jobs worldwide, travel and tourism clearly forms an integral part of the world's economy and the industry will surely unite in the fight back against the effects of terrorism.